PhD studentship in observationally-constrained climate projections
Climate models are the best available tools for projecting future climate changes, providing information needed to inform decisions on adaptation and mitigation. However, due to the complexities of the climate system and uncertainties in its properties, the spread in simulated climate change across models is considerable. Moreover uncertainty estimates based on the spread across an ad hoc range of models, as often presented, are not objectively determined. Over recent years a number of studies have addressed this issue by applying observational constraints to climate model projections.
Such studies exploit relationships between an observable quantity and an aspect of projected climate change across an ensemble of climate models, together with observations, to derive observationally constrained climate projections and associated uncertainties. The upcoming CMIP6 climate model ensemble, which is anticipated to include simulations from more than 100 climate models, together with updated observations of a strengthening climate change signal, will provide an unprecedented opportunity to apply such approaches across a range of variables to derive improved climate change projections.
Such approaches can also be used to constrain limits on cumulative carbon dioxide emissions compatible with remaining below the 1.5°C or 2°C warming thresholds identified in the Paris Agreement.
A PhD studentship in this area in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria is available from January 2019 onwards.
Please contact Nathan Gillett for further information.